The model missed the final outcome (Spartak Trnava win 5–2).
The model had projected FK Košice at 37.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FK Košice Spartak Trnava ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 5-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Trnava | 34.3% | 52.1% | -17.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.8% | 22.9% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| FK Košice | 37.9% | 25.0% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Spartak Trnava's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.3%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Spartak Trnava win 5–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Spartak Trnava than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.90) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FK Košice by 17.8 percentage points (55.7% vs model 37.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spartak Trnava 34.4% · Draw 27.8% · FK Košice 37.9%
- xG · Spartak Trnava 1.41 — FK Košice 1.49
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Trnava 1.83 · Draw 4.14 · FK Košice 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Trnava 52.0% · Draw 23.0% · FK Košice 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Trnava 1.82 · Draw 4.14 · FK Košice 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Trnava 52.1% · Draw 22.9% · FK Košice 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spartak Trnava win · 5–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trencin | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
