The model missed the final outcome (Dunajska Streda win 2–0).
The model had projected Slovan Bratislava at 47.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Slovan Bratislava Dunajska Streda ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunajska Streda | 27.7% | 34.8% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.8% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Slovan Bratislava | 47.4% | 39.4% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Slovan Bratislava's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.4%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dunajska Streda win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slovan Bratislava.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Slovan Bratislava by 8.0 percentage points (39.4% vs model 47.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 27.8% · Draw 24.9% · Slovan Bratislava 47.4%
- xG · Dunajska Streda 1.42 — Slovan Bratislava 1.89
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dunajska Streda 2.74 · Draw 3.69 · Slovan Bratislava 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 34.8% · Draw 25.8% · Slovan Bratislava 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dunajska Streda 2.74 · Draw 3.69 · Slovan Bratislava 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 34.8% · Draw 25.8% · Slovan Bratislava 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dunajska Streda win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trencin | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
