The model missed the final outcome (Spartak Trnava win 1–2).
The model had projected Komárno at 57.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Komárno Spartak Trnava ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Komárno | 57.8% | 31.1% | +26.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.3% | 28.6% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Spartak Trnava | 19.9% | 40.3% | -20.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Komárno's win probability at 57.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 26.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Spartak Trnava win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.47) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Komárno; match finished Spartak Trnava
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Komárno by 26.7 percentage points (31.1% vs model 57.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Komárno 57.8% · Draw 22.3% · Spartak Trnava 19.9%
- xG · Komárno 2.21 — Spartak Trnava 1.26
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Komárno 3.06 · Draw 3.33 · Spartak Trnava 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Komárno 31.1% · Draw 28.6% · Spartak Trnava 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Komárno 3.06 · Draw 3.33 · Spartak Trnava 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Komárno 31.1% · Draw 28.6% · Spartak Trnava 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spartak Trnava win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trencin | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
