The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Kolding IF at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kolding IF Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HB Koge | 32.9% | 25.8% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Kolding IF | 37.5% | 48.1% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kolding IF's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kolding IF than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Kolding IF; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kolding IF by 10.6 percentage points (48.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · HB Koge 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Kolding IF 37.6%
- xG · HB Koge 1.25 — Kolding IF 1.35
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · HB Koge 3.70 · Draw 3.65 · Kolding IF 1.98
- Implied 1X2 · HB Koge 25.8% · Draw 26.1% · Kolding IF 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · HB Koge 3.70 · Draw 3.65 · Kolding IF 1.98
- Implied 1X2 · HB Koge 25.8% · Draw 26.1% · Kolding IF 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Vejle | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Aalborg | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hobro | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | AB Copenhagen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 | Hvidovre | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | Hillerød | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 4 | FC Fredericia | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Hobro | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 6 | AB Copenhagen | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | HB Koge | 9 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Aarhus Fremad | 9 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 9 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
