The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected FC Fredericia at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Fredericia Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fredericia | 43.4% | 61.0% | -17.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 22.0% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Aarhus Fremad | 27.5% | 17.1% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates FC Fredericia's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 17.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about FC Fredericia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned FC Fredericia; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Fredericia by 17.6 percentage points (61.0% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Fredericia 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Aarhus Fremad 27.5%
- xG · FC Fredericia 1.47 — Aarhus Fremad 1.13
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Fredericia 1.56 · Draw 4.33 · Aarhus Fremad 5.58
- Implied 1X2 · FC Fredericia 61.0% · Draw 22.0% · Aarhus Fremad 17.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Fredericia 1.56 · Draw 4.33 · Aarhus Fremad 5.58
- Implied 1X2 · FC Fredericia 61.0% · Draw 22.0% · Aarhus Fremad 17.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Hvidovre | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Hobro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Aalborg | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hillerød | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolding IF | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | AB Copenhagen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Esbjerg | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | HB Koge | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 8 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 2 | Hvidovre | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 3 | Hillerød | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | FC Fredericia | 8 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Hobro | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Esbjerg | 8 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 |
| 7 | Aarhus Fremad | 8 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Aalborg | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kolding IF | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | AB Copenhagen | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | HB Koge | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
