Predictions / Football / Denmark. 1. Division / Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad

Prediction Audit: Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hillerød Hillerød
Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hillerød at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hillerød Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hillerød -2.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hillerød 36.1% 38.1% -2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Aarhus Fremad 34.2% 34.1% +0.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hillerød; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hillerød 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Aarhus Fremad 34.2%
    • xG · Hillerød 1.32 — Aarhus Fremad 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hillerød 2.49 · Draw 3.42 · Aarhus Fremad 2.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Hillerød 38.1% · Draw 27.8% · Aarhus Fremad 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hillerød 2.49 · Draw 3.42 · Aarhus Fremad 2.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Hillerød 38.1% · Draw 27.8% · Aarhus Fremad 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 90/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3341677

Closing Odds 2.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hillerød 1–1 Aarhus Fremad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hillerød 1.32 — Aarhus Fremad 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hvidovre 9 6 3 0 21
2 Vejle 9 5 4 0 19
3 FC Fredericia 9 3 5 1 14
4 Aarhus Fremad 9 3 4 2 13
5 Aalborg 9 3 4 2 13
6 Hobro 9 4 1 4 13
7 Vendsyssel FF 9 2 4 3 10
8 AB Copenhagen 9 2 3 4 9
9 Hillerød 9 2 3 4 9
10 Kolding IF 9 1 5 3 8
11 HB Koge 9 1 4 4 7
12 Esbjerg 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vejle 9 22 13 +9 19
2 Hvidovre 9 18 9 +9 21
3 Hillerød 9 13 14 -1 9
4 FC Fredericia 9 12 6 +6 14
5 Hobro 9 12 16 -4 13
6 AB Copenhagen 9 11 10 +1 9
7 Aalborg 9 11 11 0 13
8 HB Koge 9 11 17 -6 7
9 Aarhus Fremad 9 10 9 +1 13
10 Kolding IF 9 10 12 -2 8
11 Vendsyssel FF 9 10 14 -4 10
12 Esbjerg 9 10 19 -9 5