Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv

Prediction Audit: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:15
2 0.95
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 46%
Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv

AI correctly predicted the Botev Plovdiv win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Arda Kardzhali higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arda Kardzhali -15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arda Kardzhali 26.6% 42.0% -15.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 32.2% 29.8% +2.5 pp Aligned
Botev Plovdiv 41.2% 28.3% +12.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Arda Kardzhali's win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Botev Plovdiv win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Arda Kardzhali than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Botev Plovdiv higher (56.6% vs model 41.2%, 15.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Botev Plovdiv win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 26.6% · Draw 32.3% · Botev Plovdiv 41.1%
    • xG · Arda Kardzhali 0.95 — Botev Plovdiv 1.24
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 2.27 · Draw 3.20 · Botev Plovdiv 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 42.0% · Draw 29.8% · Botev Plovdiv 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 2.27 · Draw 3.20 · Botev Plovdiv 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 42.0% · Draw 29.8% · Botev Plovdiv 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Botev Plovdiv win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5927637

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Botev Plovdiv win · Arda Kardzhali 2–3 Botev Plovdiv
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.6% · Draw 32.3% · Away 41.1%
  • xG (showing): Arda Kardzhali 0.95 — Botev Plovdiv 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.19)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Botev Plovdiv
  • Model: 41.1% · Implied: 28.3% · Probability edge: +12.9 pts · Est. EV: +5.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.3% · No 54.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7