Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

Prediction Audit: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
Aug 31, 2026 - 18:15
2 0.93
0 0.85
xG Accuracy: 59%
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa

The model missed the final outcome (Arda Kardzhali win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 36.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Arda Kardzhali ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Arda Kardzhali higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arda Kardzhali -29.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arda Kardzhali 33.9% 63.0% -29.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 36.5% 24.3% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Botev Vratsa 29.5% 12.7% +16.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Arda Kardzhali's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.9%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Arda Kardzhali win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.78, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Arda Kardzhali

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 29.1 percentage points (65.6% vs model 36.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 33.9% · Draw 36.5% · Botev Vratsa 29.5%
    • xG · Arda Kardzhali 0.93 — Botev Vratsa 0.85
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.50 · Draw 3.89 · Botev Vratsa 7.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 63.0% · Draw 24.3% · Botev Vratsa 12.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.50 · Draw 3.89 · Botev Vratsa 7.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 63.0% · Draw 24.3% · Botev Vratsa 12.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arda Kardzhali win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5404815

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arda Kardzhali win · Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Botev Vratsa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.9% · Draw 36.5% · Away 29.5%
  • xG (showing): Arda Kardzhali 0.93 — Botev Vratsa 0.85 (total xG ≈ 1.78)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): draw
  • Model: 36.5% · Implied: 24.3% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.4% · No 63.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7