Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Prediction Audit: Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
Aug 17, 2026 - 18:15
3 1.03
1 1.00
xG Accuracy: 58%
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia

The model missed the final outcome (Arda Kardzhali win 3–1).

The model had projected Draw at 34.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Arda Kardzhali ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Arda Kardzhali higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arda Kardzhali -21.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arda Kardzhali 33.7% 55.0% -21.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 34.1% 25.8% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Lokomotiv Sofia 32.2% 19.2% +13.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Arda Kardzhali's win probability at 55.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.7%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Arda Kardzhali win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 21.3 percentage points (55.4% vs model 34.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 33.8% · Draw 34.1% · Lokomotiv Sofia 32.1%
    • xG · Arda Kardzhali 1.03 — Lokomotiv Sofia 1.00
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.72 · Draw 3.67 · Lokomotiv Sofia 4.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 55.0% · Draw 25.8% · Lokomotiv Sofia 19.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.72 · Draw 3.67 · Lokomotiv Sofia 4.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 55.0% · Draw 25.8% · Lokomotiv Sofia 19.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arda Kardzhali win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3619788

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arda Kardzhali win · Arda Kardzhali 3–1 Lokomotiv Sofia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 34.1% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): Arda Kardzhali 1.03 — Lokomotiv Sofia 1.0 (total xG ≈ 2.03)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 66.9% · Over 2.5 33.1%); BTTS No (Yes 42.4% · No 57.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.4% · No 57.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7