Prediction Audit: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cherno More Varna

Aug 09, 2026 - 16:00

2 0.66

3 1.94

xG Accuracy: 52%

Ludogorets

AI correctly predicted the Ludogorets win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ludogorets Ludogorets ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Cherno More Varna	10.6%	18.6%	-8.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	22.9%	26.6%	-3.6 pp	Aligned
Ludogorets	66.5%	54.8%	+11.7 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Ludogorets's win probability at 66.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 54.8%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ludogorets win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ludogorets.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Ludogorets attacking xG significantly stronger (1.94 vs 0.66)

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ludogorets more conservatively (54.8% vs model 66.5%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ludogorets win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cherno More Varna 10.5% · Draw 22.9% · Ludogorets 66.6%
- xG · Cherno More Varna 0.66 — Ludogorets 1.94
Aug 09, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cherno More Varna 5.10 · Draw 3.57 · Ludogorets 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Cherno More Varna 18.6% · Draw 26.6% · Ludogorets 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cherno More Varna 5.10 · Draw 3.57 · Ludogorets 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Cherno More Varna 18.6% · Draw 26.6% · Ludogorets 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ludogorets win · 2–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966460

Closing Odds 1.73

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ludogorets win · Cherno More Varna 2–3 Ludogorets

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: First League
Fixture: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.5% · Draw 22.9% · Away 66.6%
xG (showing): Cherno More Varna 0.66 — Ludogorets 1.94 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia	10	24	7	+17	24
2	Levski Sofia	9	21	4	+17	25
3	CSKA 1948	10	19	10	+9	22
4	Ludogorets	9	16	7	+9	23
5	Botev Plovdiv	10	16	14	+2	16
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	15	12	+3	17
7	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	11	18	-7	7
8	Cherno More Varna	10	11	20	-9	6
9	Spartak Varna	10	10	15	-5	10
10	Dunav Ruse	10	10	19	-9	5
11	Slavia Sofia	10	9	8	+1	11
12	Botev Vratsa	10	9	19	-10	9
13	Septemvri Sofia	10	8	18	-10	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	5	13	-8	7