Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Arda Kardzhali vs Slavia Sofia

Prediction Audit: Arda Kardzhali vs Slavia Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
Jul 24, 2026 - 18:15
1 2.13
0 1.02
xG Accuracy: 55%
Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia

AI correctly predicted the Arda Kardzhali win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Arda Kardzhali +4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arda Kardzhali 60.3% 55.4% +4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 23.3% 26.4% -3.2 pp Aligned
Slavia Sofia 16.4% 18.2% -1.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Arda Kardzhali win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Arda Kardzhali attacking xG significantly stronger (2.13 vs 1.02)
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Arda Kardzhali win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 60.3% · Draw 23.3% · Slavia Sofia 16.4%
    • xG · Arda Kardzhali 2.13 — Slavia Sofia 1.02
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.71 · Draw 3.58 · Slavia Sofia 5.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 55.4% · Draw 26.4% · Slavia Sofia 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arda Kardzhali 1.71 · Draw 3.58 · Slavia Sofia 5.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Arda Kardzhali 55.4% · Draw 26.4% · Slavia Sofia 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arda Kardzhali win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 71/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (58%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 75/100
Betting Confidence 74/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453161

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arda Kardzhali win · Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Slavia Sofia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Bulgarian First League
  • Fixture: Arda Kardzhali vs Slavia Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Arda Kardzhali 2.13 — Slavia Sofia 1.02 (total xG ≈ 3.15)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7