AI correctly predicted the Ludogorets win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ludogorets Ludogorets ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 1-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 82.3% | 72.8% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 13.0% | 18.0% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4.7% | 9.2% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Ludogorets's win probability at 82.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 72.8%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ludogorets win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ludogorets.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Ludogorets attacking xG significantly stronger (2.94 vs 0.57)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ludogorets more conservatively (72.8% vs model 82.3%, 9.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ludogorets win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 21:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ludogorets 82.4% · Draw 12.9% · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4.7%
- xG · Ludogorets 2.94 — Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.57
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ludogorets 1.30 · Draw 5.27 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.29
- Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets 72.8% · Draw 18.0% · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ludogorets 1.30 · Draw 5.27 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.29
- Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets 72.8% · Draw 18.0% · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ludogorets win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (118%+)
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
