AI correctly predicted the Levski Sofia win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 43.8% | 84.8% | -40.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 11.5% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Dunav Ruse | 27.1% | 3.8% | +23.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Levski Sofia's win probability at 84.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 40.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Levski Sofia win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Levski Sofia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Levski Sofia higher (84.7% vs model 43.8%, 40.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Levski Sofia win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Levski Sofia 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Dunav Ruse 27.1%
- xG · Levski Sofia 1.48 — Dunav Ruse 1.12
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Levski Sofia 1.12 · Draw 8.27 · Dunav Ruse 25.31
- Implied 1X2 · Levski Sofia 84.8% · Draw 11.5% · Dunav Ruse 3.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Levski Sofia 1.12 · Draw 8.27 · Dunav Ruse 25.31
- Implied 1X2 · Levski Sofia 84.8% · Draw 11.5% · Dunav Ruse 3.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Levski Sofia win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (41 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
