The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Botev Vratsa at 63.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Botev Vratsa Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 63.4% | 32.5% | +30.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.2% | 37.1% | -13.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Cherno More Varna | 13.4% | 30.4% | -17.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Botev Vratsa's win probability at 63.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.5%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Botev Vratsa; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Botev Vratsa by 30.9 percentage points (32.5% vs model 63.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Botev Vratsa 63.3% · Draw 23.2% · Cherno More Varna 13.4%
- xG · Botev Vratsa 2.28 — Cherno More Varna 0.79
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Botev Vratsa 2.93 · Draw 2.57 · Cherno More Varna 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Botev Vratsa 32.5% · Draw 37.1% · Cherno More Varna 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Botev Vratsa 2.93 · Draw 2.57 · Cherno More Varna 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Botev Vratsa 32.5% · Draw 37.1% · Cherno More Varna 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)
- Strong model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
