Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / FC Juarez vs Puebla

Prediction Audit: FC Juarez vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Juarez FC Juarez
Jul 18, 2026 - 03:00
0 2.75
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 45%
Puebla Puebla

The model missed the final outcome (Puebla win 0–1).

The model had projected FC Juarez at 66.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Juarez Puebla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, 1-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates FC Juarez considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FC Juarez +9.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Juarez 66.5% 56.7% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 19.2% 23.7% -4.4 pp Aligned
Puebla 14.3% 19.6% -5.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates FC Juarez's win probability at 66.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 56.7%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Puebla win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on FC Juarez.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Juarez by 9.8 percentage points (56.7% vs model 66.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Juarez 66.5% · Draw 19.2% · Puebla 14.3%
    • xG · FC Juarez 2.75 — Puebla 1.13
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Juarez 1.69 · Draw 4.05 · Puebla 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Juarez 56.7% · Draw 23.7% · Puebla 19.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Juarez 1.69 · Draw 4.05 · Puebla 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Juarez 56.7% · Draw 23.7% · Puebla 19.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Puebla win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 62/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (104%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100
Betting Confidence 65/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1489346

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puebla win · FC Juarez 0–1 Puebla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: FC Juárez vs Puebla
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 03:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Juárez 2.75 — Puebla 1.13 (total xG ≈ 3.88)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
6 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
7 Leon 9 4 2 3 14
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 8
18 FC Juarez 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
3 Club America 8 17 8 +9 17
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
10 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
11 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Leon 9 12 10 +2 14
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
15 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
17 Necaxa 9 10 16 -6 8
18 FC Juarez 9 6 23 -17 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Tijuana 9 8.2 3.2 +5.0 14
2 Cruz Azul 10 11.3 7.5 +3.8 16
3 Monterrey 9 9.8 6.2 +3.6 13
4 Club America 8 9.7 6.1 +3.6 17
5 Toluca 10 8.9 6.1 +2.8 20
6 Tigres UANL 10 9.7 7.3 +2.4 10
7 Guadalajara Chivas 10 8.1 5.8 +2.3 18
8 Necaxa 9 6.8 6.1 +0.7 8
9 Santos Laguna 10 10.1 9.7 +0.4 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 8.6 8.8 -0.2 17
11 Leon 9 8.7 9.4 -0.7 14
12 Puebla 10 7.3 8.9 -1.6 14
13 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 6.4 8.0 -1.6 12
14 Pachuca 10 7.4 9.2 -1.8 12
15 Atlas 10 6.6 9.5 -2.9 17
16 Atletico San Luis 10 7.8 11.1 -3.3 12
17 Atlante FC 10 6.3 10.1 -3.8 11
18 FC Juarez 9 4.7 13.4 -8.7 3
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