Predictions / Football / Kenya. Super League / Naivas vs Mombasa Elite

Prediction Audit: Naivas vs Mombasa Elite Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Naivas Naivas
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.00
1 0.94
xG Accuracy: 98%
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.94, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Naivas 1.00 — Mombasa Elite 0.94
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1764967

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Naivas 1–1 Mombasa Elite
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Naivas vs Mombasa Elite
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Naivas 1.0 — Mombasa Elite 0.94 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Migori Youth 38 25 6 7 81
2 3K 38 23 8 7 77
3 Mombasa Elite 38 24 4 10 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 63
7 Naivas 38 17 10 11 61
8 Talanta 38 16 9 13 57
9 Kibera Black Stars 38 15 8 15 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 43
14 Kabati Youth FC 38 10 9 19 39
15 Kisumu All Stars 38 10 9 19 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 34
19 Vihiga United FC 38 9 9 20 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 3K 38 62 26 +36 77
2 Fortune Sacco 38 61 41 +20 63
3 Migori Youth 38 57 29 +28 81
4 Equity Bank 38 56 28 +28 74
5 Talanta 38 53 41 +12 57
6 MOFA 38 51 30 +21 64
7 Mombasa Elite 38 51 32 +19 76
8 Naivas 38 47 30 +17 61
9 Nzoia Sugar 38 37 36 +1 50
10 Gucha Stars 38 35 41 -6 44
11 Kibera Black Stars 38 32 33 -1 53
12 Nairobi City Stars 38 32 44 -12 39
13 Kabati Youth FC 38 32 52 -20 39
14 Soy United 38 31 27 +4 52
15 Luanda Villa 38 30 51 -21 43
16 Vihiga United FC 38 29 55 -26 30
17 Darajani Gogo 38 27 48 -21 38
18 Mwatate United 38 27 64 -37 25
19 MCF 38 24 42 -18 34
20 Kisumu All Stars 38 23 47 -24 39