Predictions / Football / Kenya. Super League / Nairobi City Stars vs Darajani Gogo

Prediction Audit: Nairobi City Stars vs Darajani Gogo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.07
3 0.87
xG Accuracy: 42%
Darajani Gogo Darajani Gogo

The model missed the final outcome (Darajani Gogo win 0–3).

The model had projected Nairobi City Stars at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nairobi City Stars Darajani Gogo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Nairobi City Stars; match finished Darajani Gogo

Market lesson

The full-time result was Darajani Gogo win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Nairobi City Stars 1.07 — Darajani Gogo 0.87
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Darajani Gogo win · 0–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2515933

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Darajani Gogo win · Nairobi City Stars 0–3 Darajani Gogo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Nairobi City Stars vs Darajani Gogo
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Nairobi City Stars 1.07 — Darajani Gogo 0.87 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Migori Youth 38 25 6 7 81
2 3K 38 23 8 7 77
3 Mombasa Elite 38 24 4 10 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 63
7 Naivas 38 17 10 11 61
8 Talanta 38 16 9 13 57
9 Kibera Black Stars 38 15 8 15 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 43
14 Kabati Youth FC 38 10 9 19 39
15 Kisumu All Stars 38 10 9 19 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 34
19 Vihiga United FC 38 9 9 20 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 3K 38 62 26 +36 77
2 Fortune Sacco 38 61 41 +20 63
3 Migori Youth 38 57 29 +28 81
4 Equity Bank 38 56 28 +28 74
5 Talanta 38 53 41 +12 57
6 MOFA 38 51 30 +21 64
7 Mombasa Elite 38 51 32 +19 76
8 Naivas 38 47 30 +17 61
9 Nzoia Sugar 38 37 36 +1 50
10 Gucha Stars 38 35 41 -6 44
11 Kibera Black Stars 38 32 33 -1 53
12 Nairobi City Stars 38 32 44 -12 39
13 Kabati Youth FC 38 32 52 -20 39
14 Soy United 38 31 27 +4 52
15 Luanda Villa 38 30 51 -21 43
16 Vihiga United FC 38 29 55 -26 30
17 Darajani Gogo 38 27 48 -21 38
18 Mwatate United 38 27 64 -37 25
19 MCF 38 24 42 -18 34
20 Kisumu All Stars 38 23 47 -24 39