Predictions / Football / Kenya. Super League / MOFA vs Kabati Youth FC

Prediction Audit: MOFA vs Kabati Youth FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

MOFA MOFA
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.11
1 0.83
xG Accuracy: 93%
Kabati Youth FC Kabati Youth FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected MOFA at 40.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 MOFA Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.94, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned MOFA; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 19:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · MOFA 1.11 — Kabati Youth FC 0.83
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1971227

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · MOFA 1–1 Kabati Youth FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: MOFA vs Kabati Youth FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): MOFA 1.11 — Kabati Youth FC 0.83 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Migori Youth 38 25 6 7 81
2 3K 38 23 8 7 77
3 Mombasa Elite 38 24 4 10 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 63
7 Naivas 38 17 10 11 61
8 Talanta 38 16 9 13 57
9 Kibera Black Stars 38 15 8 15 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 43
14 Kabati Youth FC 38 10 9 19 39
15 Kisumu All Stars 38 10 9 19 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 34
19 Vihiga United FC 38 9 9 20 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 3K 38 62 26 +36 77
2 Fortune Sacco 38 61 41 +20 63
3 Migori Youth 38 57 29 +28 81
4 Equity Bank 38 56 28 +28 74
5 Talanta 38 53 41 +12 57
6 MOFA 38 51 30 +21 64
7 Mombasa Elite 38 51 32 +19 76
8 Naivas 38 47 30 +17 61
9 Nzoia Sugar 38 37 36 +1 50
10 Gucha Stars 38 35 41 -6 44
11 Kibera Black Stars 38 32 33 -1 53
12 Nairobi City Stars 38 32 44 -12 39
13 Kabati Youth FC 38 32 52 -20 39
14 Soy United 38 31 27 +4 52
15 Luanda Villa 38 30 51 -21 43
16 Vihiga United FC 38 29 55 -26 30
17 Darajani Gogo 38 27 48 -21 38
18 Mwatate United 38 27 64 -37 25
19 MCF 38 24 42 -18 34
20 Kisumu All Stars 38 23 47 -24 39