Predictions / Football / World. ASEAN Club Championship / Shan United vs Ezra

Prediction Audit: Shan United vs Ezra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shan United Shan United
Sep 14, 2026 - 11:30
1(3) 1.29
0(2) 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ezra Ezra

The model missed the final outcome (Shan United win 1–0).

The model had projected Ezra at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ezra Shan United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Shan United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shan United -27.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shan United 34.7% 62.0% -27.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.9% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Ezra 35.6% 18.1% +17.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Shan United's win probability at 62.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Shan United win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Ezra; match finished Shan United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ezra by 27.3 percentage points (62.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shan United 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Ezra 35.6%
    • xG · Shan United 1.29 — Ezra 1.31
  2. Sep 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shan United 1.43 · Draw 4.47 · Ezra 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Shan United 62.0% · Draw 19.9% · Ezra 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 14, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shan United 1.43 · Draw 4.47 · Ezra 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Shan United 62.0% · Draw 19.9% · Ezra 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 14, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shan United win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7571192

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shan United win · Shan United 1–0 Ezra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: ASEAN Club Championship
  • Fixture: Shan United vs Ezra
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Shan United 1.29 — Ezra 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.6% · Probability edge: +20.2 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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