The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Ponferradina at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ponferradina Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 38.4% | 45.1% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.9% | 30.5% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Celta de Vigo II | 31.7% | 24.4% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Celta de Vigo II's win probability at 31.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Celta de Vigo II.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Ponferradina; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ponferradina by 7.3 percentage points (31.1% vs model 38.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 20:35 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ponferradina 38.4% · Draw 29.8% · Celta de Vigo II 31.7%
- xG · Ponferradina 1.31 — Celta de Vigo II 1.29
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ponferradina 2.03 · Draw 3.00 · Celta de Vigo II 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Ponferradina 45.1% · Draw 30.5% · Celta de Vigo II 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ponferradina 2.03 · Draw 3.00 · Celta de Vigo II 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Ponferradina 45.1% · Draw 30.5% · Celta de Vigo II 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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