Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Roda vs Alemannia Aachen

Prediction Audit: Roda vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Roda Roda
Aug 01, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 39%
Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen

The model missed the final outcome (Alemannia Aachen win 2–4).

The model had projected Roda at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Roda Alemannia Aachen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Alemannia Aachen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Alemannia Aachen -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Roda 37.1% 30.1% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.1% +3.5 pp Aligned
Alemannia Aachen 33.3% 43.8% -10.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Alemannia Aachen's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Alemannia Aachen win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Roda; match finished Alemannia Aachen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Roda by 10.4 percentage points (47.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Roda 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Alemannia Aachen 33.4%
    • xG · Roda 1.34 — Alemannia Aachen 1.26
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Roda 2.95 · Draw 3.40 · Alemannia Aachen 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Roda 30.1% · Draw 26.1% · Alemannia Aachen 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Roda 2.95 · Draw 3.40 · Alemannia Aachen 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Roda 30.1% · Draw 26.1% · Alemannia Aachen 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alemannia Aachen win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819246

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alemannia Aachen win · Roda 2–4 Alemannia Aachen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Roda vs Alemannia Aachen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Roda 1.34 — Alemannia Aachen 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Friendlies Clubs Matches Track Roda Next Match Prediction Track Alemannia Aachen Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Roda & Alemannia Aachen!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions