Prediction Audit: Frosinone vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Frosinone

Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.39

2 1.99

xG Accuracy: 64%

Venezia

The model missed the final outcome (Frosinone win 3–2).

The model had projected Venezia at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Venezia Frosinone ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Frosinone	25.6%	36.7%	-11.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	24.2%	27.4%	-3.2 pp	Aligned
Venezia	50.3%	35.9%	+14.4 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Venezia's win probability at 50.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.9%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Frosinone win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Venezia.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.38) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Venezia; match finished Frosinone
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Venezia by 14.4 percentage points (35.9% vs model 50.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Frosinone 25.6% · Draw 24.2% · Venezia 50.3%
- xG · Frosinone 1.39 — Venezia 1.99
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Frosinone 2.65 · Draw 3.55 · Venezia 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Frosinone 36.7% · Draw 27.4% · Venezia 35.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Frosinone 2.65 · Draw 3.55 · Venezia 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Frosinone 36.7% · Draw 27.4% · Venezia 35.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Frosinone win · 3–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 06:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6354004

Closing Odds 2.71

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Frosinone win · Frosinone 3–2 Venezia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie A
Fixture: Frosinone vs Venezia
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.6% · Draw 24.2% · Away 50.3%
xG (showing): Frosinone 1.39 — Venezia 1.99 (total xG ≈ 3.38)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 65.6% · Implied: 55.1% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 66.0% · No 34.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter	5	15	8	+7	13
2	AS Roma	5	14	3	+11	13
3	AC Milan	5	10	4	+6	11
4	Frosinone	5	9	4	+5	10
5	Como	5	9	6	+3	10
6	Sassuolo	5	9	9	0	7
7	Lazio	5	8	3	+5	13
8	Juventus	5	8	4	+4	10
9	Udinese	5	8	11	-3	4
10	Monza	5	8	12	-4	4
11	Napoli	5	7	6	+1	7
12	Fiorentina	5	6	12	-6	4
13	Cagliari	5	5	2	+3	12
14	Atalanta	5	5	7	-2	6
15	Torino	5	5	8	-3	4
16	Lecce	5	5	10	-5	6
17	Parma	5	4	7	-3	4
18	Venezia	5	4	13	-9	0
19	Bologna	5	3	6	-3	2
20	Genoa	5	3	10	-7	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter	5	10.3	4.3	+6.0	13
2	AS Roma	5	9.7	4.2	+5.5	13
3	Juventus	5	6.0	2.2	+3.8	10
4	Monza	5	8.8	5.3	+3.5	4
5	AC Milan	5	6.8	4.0	+2.8	11
6	Napoli	5	5.4	2.9	+2.5	7
7	Sassuolo	5	7.9	6.2	+1.7	7
8	Lazio	5	7.6	6.1	+1.5	13
9	Como	5	8.0	6.7	+1.3	10
10	Bologna	5	5.8	5.0	+0.8	2
11	Fiorentina	5	6.5	6.0	+0.5	4
12	Genoa	5	3.9	4.7	-0.8	1
13	Torino	5	3.8	5.2	-1.4	4
14	Udinese	5	6.7	9.2	-2.5	4
15	Frosinone	5	7.4	10.1	-2.7	10
16	Cagliari	5	5.2	8.2	-3.0	12
17	Venezia	5	7.7	11.2	-3.5	0
18	Atalanta	5	2.7	6.5	-3.8	6
19	Parma	5	3.2	8.3	-5.1	4
20	Lecce	5	4.7	11.8	-7.1	6