Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Mes Soongoun vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Prediction Audit: Mes Soongoun vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mes Soongoun Mes Soongoun
Jun 27, 2026 - 16:45
1 0.81
1 0.75
xG Accuracy: 89%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm Shenavarsazi Qeshm

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mes Soongoun higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mes Soongoun -6.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mes Soongoun 33.9% 40.8% -6.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 38.0% 34.3% +3.8 pp Aligned
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 28.0% 24.9% +3.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Mes Soongoun's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.9%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 1–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mes Soongoun. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.56, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Draw higher (44.9% vs model 38.0%, 6.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 1–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 21:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mes Soongoun 33.9% · Draw 38.0% · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 28.0%
    • xG · Mes Soongoun 0.81 — Shenavarsazi Qeshm 0.75
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Soongoun 2.20 · Draw 2.62 · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Soongoun 40.8% · Draw 34.3% · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Soongoun 2.20 · Draw 2.62 · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Soongoun 40.8% · Draw 34.3% · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659815

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mes Soongoun 1–1 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Mes Soongoun vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Mes Soongoun 0.81 — Shenavarsazi Qeshm 0.75 (total xG ≈ 1.56)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
Azadegan League Iran. Azadegan League Predictions