Predictions / Football / Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur / Alumni Los Hornos vs Everton La Plata

Prediction Audit: Alumni Los Hornos vs Everton La Plata Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Alumni Los Hornos
Aug 16, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Everton La Plata Everton La Plata

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Alumni Los Hornos at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alumni Los Hornos Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Everton La Plata considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Everton La Plata +6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alumni Los Hornos 36.1% 39.8% -3.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 32.1% -2.5 pp Aligned
Everton La Plata 34.2% 28.0% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Everton La Plata's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.0%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Everton La Plata.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Alumni Los Hornos; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alumni Los Hornos by 6.2 percentage points (29.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alumni Los Hornos 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Everton La Plata 34.2%
    • xG · Alumni Los Hornos 1.32 — Everton La Plata 1.28
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alumni Los Hornos 2.26 · Draw 2.80 · Everton La Plata 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Alumni Los Hornos 39.8% · Draw 32.1% · Everton La Plata 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alumni Los Hornos 2.26 · Draw 2.80 · Everton La Plata 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Alumni Los Hornos 39.8% · Draw 32.1% · Everton La Plata 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4035769

Closing Odds 3.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Alumni Los Hornos 0–0 Everton La Plata
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Torneo Promocional Amateur
  • Fixture: Alumni Los Hornos vs Everton La Plata
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Alumni Los Hornos 1.32 — Everton La Plata 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Promocional Amateur Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SAT Moreno 14 11 0 3 33
2 Defensores Glew 14 10 2 2 32
3 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 10 2 2 32
4 Barrancas UMET 16 9 4 3 31
5 Uribelarrea 16 8 5 3 29
6 Ezeiza 16 7 5 4 26
7 Buenos Aires City 16 7 4 5 25
8 Nautico Hacoaj 14 7 3 4 24
9 Belgrano Zarate 16 5 7 4 22
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 5 3 8 18
11 Control Orientado 16 5 3 8 18
12 Estrella de Berisso 14 4 3 7 15
13 Everton La Plata 16 3 5 8 14
14 Las Mandarinas 16 4 2 10 14
15 Atletico Pilar 14 2 3 9 9
16 Juventud de Bernal 14 2 2 10 8
17 Provincial 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Defensores Glew 14 37 8 +29 32
2 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 32 10 +22 32
3 SAT Moreno 14 24 9 +15 33
4 Nautico Hacoaj 14 24 11 +13 24
5 Uribelarrea 16 19 11 +8 29
6 Buenos Aires City 16 18 13 +5 25
7 Ezeiza 16 18 17 +1 26
8 Estrella de Berisso 14 18 24 -6 15
9 Barrancas UMET 16 17 9 +8 31
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 17 20 -3 18
11 Control Orientado 16 15 20 -5 18
12 Las Mandarinas 16 12 20 -8 14
13 Belgrano Zarate 16 11 10 +1 22
14 Atletico Pilar 14 11 24 -13 9
15 Juventud de Bernal 14 10 41 -31 8
16 Provincial 14 9 38 -29 7
17 Everton La Plata 16 7 14 -7 14
Torneo Promocional Amateur Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions