Predictions / Football / Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur / Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno

Prediction Audit: Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Juventud de Bernal Juventud de Bernal
Aug 19, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.10
3 1.50
xG Accuracy: 49%
SAT Moreno SAT Moreno

AI correctly predicted the SAT Moreno win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SAT Moreno SAT Moreno ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SAT Moreno higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SAT Moreno -36.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Juventud de Bernal 26.2% 6.3% +20.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.9% 12.2% +16.8 pp Model Edge
SAT Moreno 44.8% 81.6% -36.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates SAT Moreno's win probability at 81.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 36.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SAT Moreno win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • SAT Moreno attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SAT Moreno higher (81.5% vs model 44.8%, 36.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SAT Moreno win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Juventud de Bernal 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · SAT Moreno 44.8%
    • xG · Juventud de Bernal 1.10 — SAT Moreno 1.50
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Juventud de Bernal 14.33 · Draw 7.37 · SAT Moreno 1.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Juventud de Bernal 6.3% · Draw 12.2% · SAT Moreno 81.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Juventud de Bernal 14.33 · Draw 7.37 · SAT Moreno 1.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Juventud de Bernal 6.3% · Draw 12.2% · SAT Moreno 81.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SAT Moreno win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2828299

Closing Odds 1.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SAT Moreno win · Juventud de Bernal 0–3 SAT Moreno
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours SAT Moreno; market prices SAT Moreno instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Juventud de Bernal 1.10 xG vs SAT Moreno 1.50 → SAT Moreno 44.8%
  • Market: SAT Moreno ~81.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Promocional Amateur Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SAT Moreno 14 11 0 3 33
2 Defensores Glew 14 10 2 2 32
3 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 10 2 2 32
4 Barrancas UMET 16 9 4 3 31
5 Uribelarrea 16 8 5 3 29
6 Ezeiza 16 7 5 4 26
7 Buenos Aires City 16 7 4 5 25
8 Nautico Hacoaj 14 7 3 4 24
9 Belgrano Zarate 16 5 7 4 22
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 5 3 8 18
11 Control Orientado 16 5 3 8 18
12 Estrella de Berisso 14 4 3 7 15
13 Everton La Plata 16 3 5 8 14
14 Las Mandarinas 16 4 2 10 14
15 Atletico Pilar 14 2 3 9 9
16 Juventud de Bernal 14 2 2 10 8
17 Provincial 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Defensores Glew 14 37 8 +29 32
2 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 32 10 +22 32
3 SAT Moreno 14 24 9 +15 33
4 Nautico Hacoaj 14 24 11 +13 24
5 Uribelarrea 16 19 11 +8 29
6 Buenos Aires City 16 18 13 +5 25
7 Ezeiza 16 18 17 +1 26
8 Estrella de Berisso 14 18 24 -6 15
9 Barrancas UMET 16 17 9 +8 31
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 17 20 -3 18
11 Control Orientado 16 15 20 -5 18
12 Las Mandarinas 16 12 20 -8 14
13 Belgrano Zarate 16 11 10 +1 22
14 Atletico Pilar 14 11 24 -13 9
15 Juventud de Bernal 14 10 41 -31 8
16 Provincial 14 9 38 -29 7
17 Everton La Plata 16 7 14 -7 14
Torneo Promocional Amateur Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions