Predictions / Football / Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur / Belgrano Zarate vs Alumni Los Hornos

Prediction Audit: Belgrano Zarate vs Alumni Los Hornos Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Belgrano Zarate Belgrano Zarate
Jul 17, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 73%
⚽
Alumni Los Hornos

The model missed the final outcome (Belgrano Zarate win 2–1).

The model had projected Alumni Los Hornos at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alumni Los Hornos Belgrano Zarate ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Alumni Los Hornos considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Alumni Los Hornos +5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Belgrano Zarate 32.9% 37.8% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 30.0% 30.4% -0.4 pp Aligned
Alumni Los Hornos 37.2% 31.9% +5.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Alumni Los Hornos's win probability at 37.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.9%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Belgrano Zarate win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Alumni Los Hornos.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Alumni Los Hornos; match finished Belgrano Zarate

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alumni Los Hornos by 5.3 percentage points (31.9% vs model 37.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Belgrano Zarate 32.9% · Draw 29.9% · Alumni Los Hornos 37.2%
    • xG · Belgrano Zarate 1.23 — Alumni Los Hornos 1.37
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Belgrano Zarate 2.36 · Draw 2.93 · Alumni Los Hornos 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Belgrano Zarate 37.7% · Draw 30.4% · Alumni Los Hornos 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Belgrano Zarate 2.38 · Draw 2.96 · Alumni Los Hornos 2.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Belgrano Zarate 37.8% · Draw 30.4% · Alumni Los Hornos 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Belgrano Zarate win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1652616

Closing Odds 2.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Belgrano Zarate win · Belgrano Zarate 2–1 Alumni Los Hornos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Torneo Promocional Amateur
  • Fixture: Belgrano Zarate vs Alumni Los Hornos
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.9% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Belgrano Zarate 1.23 — Alumni Los Hornos 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Promocional Amateur Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SAT Moreno 14 11 0 3 33
2 Defensores Glew 14 10 2 2 32
3 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 10 2 2 32
4 Barrancas UMET 16 9 4 3 31
5 Uribelarrea 16 8 5 3 29
6 Ezeiza 16 7 5 4 26
7 Buenos Aires City 16 7 4 5 25
8 Nautico Hacoaj 14 7 3 4 24
9 Belgrano Zarate 16 5 7 4 22
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 5 3 8 18
11 Control Orientado 16 5 3 8 18
12 Estrella de Berisso 14 4 3 7 15
13 Everton La Plata 16 3 5 8 14
14 Las Mandarinas 16 4 2 10 14
15 Atletico Pilar 14 2 3 9 9
16 Juventud de Bernal 14 2 2 10 8
17 Provincial 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Defensores Glew 14 37 8 +29 32
2 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 32 10 +22 32
3 SAT Moreno 14 24 9 +15 33
4 Nautico Hacoaj 14 24 11 +13 24
5 Uribelarrea 16 19 11 +8 29
6 Buenos Aires City 16 18 13 +5 25
7 Ezeiza 16 18 17 +1 26
8 Estrella de Berisso 14 18 24 -6 15
9 Barrancas UMET 16 17 9 +8 31
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 17 20 -3 18
11 Control Orientado 16 15 20 -5 18
12 Las Mandarinas 16 12 20 -8 14
13 Belgrano Zarate 16 11 10 +1 22
14 Atletico Pilar 14 11 24 -13 9
15 Juventud de Bernal 14 10 41 -31 8
16 Provincial 14 9 38 -29 7
17 Everton La Plata 16 7 14 -7 14
Torneo Promocional Amateur Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions