Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera A / Jaguares vs Alianza Petrolera

Prediction Audit: Jaguares vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jaguares Jaguares
Sep 27, 2026 - 21:00
1 0.99
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 85%
Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera

AI correctly predicted the Alianza Petrolera win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Alianza Petrolera considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Alianza Petrolera +14.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jaguares 24.8% 38.5% -13.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.2% 31.1% -0.9 pp Aligned
Alianza Petrolera 45.0% 30.4% +14.6 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Alianza Petrolera's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.4%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Alianza Petrolera win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Alianza Petrolera.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Alianza Petrolera attacking xG significantly stronger (1.41 vs 0.99)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Alianza Petrolera more conservatively (30.4% vs model 45.0%, 14.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Alianza Petrolera win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jaguares 24.8% · Draw 30.2% · Alianza Petrolera 45.0%
    • xG · Jaguares 0.99 — Alianza Petrolera 1.41
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jaguares 2.48 · Draw 3.07 · Alianza Petrolera 3.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Jaguares 38.5% · Draw 31.1% · Alianza Petrolera 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jaguares 2.48 · Draw 3.07 · Alianza Petrolera 3.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Jaguares 38.5% · Draw 31.1% · Alianza Petrolera 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alianza Petrolera win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10112094

Closing Odds 3.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alianza Petrolera win · Jaguares 1–2 Alianza Petrolera
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera A
  • Fixture: Jaguares vs Alianza Petrolera
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.8% · Draw 30.2% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Jaguares 0.99 — Alianza Petrolera 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.4)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Alianza Petrolera
  • Model: 45.0% · Implied: 30.4% · Probability edge: +14.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.1% · No 50.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera A Primera A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 13 1 5 40
2 Junior 19 11 2 6 35
3 Deportivo Pasto 19 10 4 5 34
4 America de Cali 19 10 3 6 33
5 Once Caldas 19 8 9 2 33
6 Deportes Tolima 19 8 7 4 31
7 Santa Fe 19 7 8 4 29
8 La Equidad 19 7 7 5 28
9 Deportivo Cali 19 7 6 6 27
10 Millonarios 19 7 5 7 26
11 Independiente Medellin 19 7 5 7 26
12 Rionegro Aguilas 19 7 5 7 26
13 Bucaramanga 19 5 8 6 23
14 Llaneros 19 4 10 5 22
15 Fortaleza FC 19 5 7 7 22
16 Jaguares 19 5 3 11 18
17 Alianza Petrolera 19 3 8 8 17
18 Chico 19 5 2 12 17
19 Cucuta 19 3 7 9 16
20 Deportivo Pereira 19 1 7 11 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 35 15 +20 40
2 Once Caldas 19 31 22 +9 33
3 Millonarios 19 31 23 +8 26
4 Junior 19 31 24 +7 35
5 Santa Fe 19 29 22 +7 29
6 Deportivo Pasto 19 29 25 +4 34
7 Deportes Tolima 19 27 17 +10 31
8 Bucaramanga 19 26 20 +6 23
9 Independiente Medellin 19 26 24 +2 26
10 La Equidad 19 26 26 0 28
11 America de Cali 19 25 15 +10 33
12 Fortaleza FC 19 22 27 -5 22
13 Cucuta 19 22 35 -13 16
14 Deportivo Cali 19 20 16 +4 27
15 Rionegro Aguilas 19 20 25 -5 26
16 Jaguares 19 20 33 -13 18
17 Llaneros 19 17 20 -3 22
18 Chico 19 15 32 -17 17
19 Deportivo Pereira 19 15 32 -17 10
20 Alianza Petrolera 19 13 27 -14 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 America de Cali 19 9.1 4.4 +4.7 33
2 Rionegro Aguilas 19 8.9 4.5 +4.4 26
3 Millonarios 19 7.8 4.3 +3.5 26
4 Atletico Nacional 19 6.6 3.5 +3.1 40
5 Deportes Tolima 19 6.8 4.2 +2.6 31
6 Deportivo Cali 19 5.4 3.1 +2.3 27
7 Once Caldas 19 4.2 3.4 +0.8 33
8 Chico 19 4.8 5.0 -0.2 17
9 Independiente Medellin 19 3.5 3.7 -0.2 26
10 La Equidad 19 6.2 6.5 -0.3 28
11 Junior 19 3.6 4.3 -0.7 35
12 Santa Fe 19 4.0 5.1 -1.1 29
13 Alianza Petrolera 19 6.0 7.3 -1.3 17
14 Cucuta 19 5.2 6.6 -1.4 16
15 Bucaramanga 19 3.4 5.0 -1.6 23
16 Deportivo Pereira 19 4.3 6.0 -1.7 10
17 Fortaleza FC 19 3.4 5.4 -2.0 22
18 Deportivo Pasto 19 4.5 7.0 -2.5 34
19 Llaneros 19 3.1 6.5 -3.4 22
20 Jaguares 19 3.1 8.2 -5.1 18
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