Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera A / Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima

Prediction Audit: Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera
Aug 01, 2026 - 21:05
1 2.55
2 0.36
xG Accuracy: 42%
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima

The model missed the final outcome (Deportes Tolima win 1–2).

The model had projected Alianza Petrolera at 84.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alianza Petrolera Deportes Tolima ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 4-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Alianza Petrolera considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Alianza Petrolera +46.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alianza Petrolera 84.1% 37.6% +46.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 13.0% 30.8% -17.8 pp Market Higher
Deportes Tolima 2.9% 31.6% -28.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Alianza Petrolera's win probability at 84.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.6%, a difference of 46.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Deportes Tolima win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.91) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Alianza Petrolera; match finished Deportes Tolima

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alianza Petrolera by 46.5 percentage points (37.6% vs model 84.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 21:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alianza Petrolera 84.1% · Draw 13.0% · Deportes Tolima 2.9%
    • xG · Alianza Petrolera 2.55 — Deportes Tolima 0.36
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 20:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Petrolera 2.54 · Draw 3.10 · Deportes Tolima 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Petrolera 37.6% · Draw 30.8% · Deportes Tolima 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 21:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Petrolera 2.54 · Draw 3.10 · Deportes Tolima 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Petrolera 37.6% · Draw 30.8% · Deportes Tolima 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 21:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Deportes Tolima win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 14/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (46 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (89%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 4/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1827366

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportes Tolima win · Alianza Petrolera 1–2 Deportes Tolima
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Alianza Petrolera; market prices Alianza Petrolera instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Alianza Petrolera 2.55 xG vs Deportes Tolima 0.36 → Alianza Petrolera 84.1%
  • Market: Alianza Petrolera ~37.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.4% · Over 2.5 55.6%); BTTS No (Yes 28.5% · No 71.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera A Matches Track Alianza Petrolera Next Match Prediction Track Deportes Tolima Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Alianza Petrolera & Deportes Tolima!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera A Primera A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 13 1 5 40
2 Junior 19 11 2 6 35
3 Deportivo Pasto 19 10 4 5 34
4 America de Cali 19 10 3 6 33
5 Once Caldas 19 8 9 2 33
6 Deportes Tolima 19 8 7 4 31
7 Santa Fe 19 7 8 4 29
8 La Equidad 19 7 7 5 28
9 Deportivo Cali 19 7 6 6 27
10 Millonarios 19 7 5 7 26
11 Independiente Medellin 19 7 5 7 26
12 Rionegro Aguilas 19 7 5 7 26
13 Bucaramanga 19 5 8 6 23
14 Llaneros 19 4 10 5 22
15 Fortaleza FC 19 5 7 7 22
16 Jaguares 19 5 3 11 18
17 Alianza Petrolera 19 3 8 8 17
18 Chico 19 5 2 12 17
19 Cucuta 19 3 7 9 16
20 Deportivo Pereira 19 1 7 11 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 35 15 +20 40
2 Once Caldas 19 31 22 +9 33
3 Millonarios 19 31 23 +8 26
4 Junior 19 31 24 +7 35
5 Santa Fe 19 29 22 +7 29
6 Deportivo Pasto 19 29 25 +4 34
7 Deportes Tolima 19 27 17 +10 31
8 Bucaramanga 19 26 20 +6 23
9 Independiente Medellin 19 26 24 +2 26
10 La Equidad 19 26 26 0 28
11 America de Cali 19 25 15 +10 33
12 Fortaleza FC 19 22 27 -5 22
13 Cucuta 19 22 35 -13 16
14 Deportivo Cali 19 20 16 +4 27
15 Rionegro Aguilas 19 20 25 -5 26
16 Jaguares 19 20 33 -13 18
17 Llaneros 19 17 20 -3 22
18 Chico 19 15 32 -17 17
19 Deportivo Pereira 19 15 32 -17 10
20 Alianza Petrolera 19 13 27 -14 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 America de Cali 19 9.1 4.4 +4.7 33
2 Rionegro Aguilas 19 8.9 4.5 +4.4 26
3 Millonarios 19 7.8 4.3 +3.5 26
4 Atletico Nacional 19 6.6 3.5 +3.1 40
5 Deportes Tolima 19 6.8 4.2 +2.6 31
6 Deportivo Cali 19 5.4 3.1 +2.3 27
7 Once Caldas 19 4.2 3.4 +0.8 33
8 Chico 19 4.8 5.0 -0.2 17
9 Independiente Medellin 19 3.5 3.7 -0.2 26
10 La Equidad 19 6.2 6.5 -0.3 28
11 Junior 19 3.6 4.3 -0.7 35
12 Santa Fe 19 4.0 5.1 -1.1 29
13 Alianza Petrolera 19 6.0 7.3 -1.3 17
14 Cucuta 19 5.2 6.6 -1.4 16
15 Bucaramanga 19 3.4 5.0 -1.6 23
16 Deportivo Pereira 19 4.3 6.0 -1.7 10
17 Fortaleza FC 19 3.4 5.4 -2.0 22
18 Deportivo Pasto 19 4.5 7.0 -2.5 34
19 Llaneros 19 3.1 6.5 -3.4 22
20 Jaguares 19 3.1 8.2 -5.1 18
Primera A Colombia. Primera A Predictions