Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Leones FC vs Barranquilla

Prediction Audit: Leones FC vs Barranquilla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leones FC Leones FC
Oct 07, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 85%
Barranquilla Barranquilla

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Barranquilla at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barranquilla Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leones FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leones FC -24.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leones FC 32.4% 56.7% -24.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Barranquilla 38.0% 19.8% +18.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Leones FC's win probability at 56.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Barranquilla; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Barranquilla by 24.3 percentage points (62.3% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 01, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leones FC 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Barranquilla 38.0%
    • xG · Leones FC 1.24 — Barranquilla 1.36
  2. Oct 07, 2026 · 20:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
    • 1X2 odds · Leones FC 1.66 · Draw 3.85 · Barranquilla 4.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Leones FC 55.8% · Draw 24.1% · Barranquilla 20.1%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  3. Oct 07, 2026 · 20:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leones FC 1.64 · Draw 3.95 · Barranquilla 4.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Leones FC 56.7% · Draw 23.5% · Barranquilla 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  4. Oct 07, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12190395

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Leones FC 1–1 Barranquilla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Leones FC vs Barranquilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Leones FC 1.24 — Barranquilla 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Quindio 32 16 9 7 57
3 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
4 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
5 Union Magdalena 31 15 7 9 52
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
11 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
12 Popayan 25 7 9 9 30
13 Orsomarso 26 6 9 11 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
16 Leones FC 25 4 7 14 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 31 44 30 +14 52
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 32 33 21 +12 57
7 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
8 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
9 Popayan 25 32 33 -1 30
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 26 20 28 -8 27
16 Leones FC 25 15 40 -25 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions