Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Real Soacha vs Quindio

Prediction Audit: Real Soacha vs Quindio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Soacha Real Soacha
Sep 21, 2026 - 22:00
3 1.45
1 1.15
xG Accuracy: 63%
Quindio Quindio

AI correctly predicted the Real Soacha win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Soacha Real Soacha ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Real Soacha higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Real Soacha -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Soacha 42.4% 52.3% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 28.2% +1.0 pp Aligned
Quindio 28.4% 19.5% +8.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Real Soacha's win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Real Soacha win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Real Soacha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Real Soacha higher (52.3% vs model 42.4%, 9.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Real Soacha win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Soacha 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Quindio 28.4%
    • xG · Real Soacha 1.45 — Quindio 1.15
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Soacha 1.73 · Draw 3.20 · Quindio 4.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Soacha 52.3% · Draw 28.2% · Quindio 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Soacha 1.73 · Draw 3.20 · Quindio 4.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Soacha 52.3% · Draw 28.2% · Quindio 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Soacha win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8840858

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Soacha win · Real Soacha 3–1 Quindio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Real Soacha vs Quindio
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Real Soacha 1.45 — Quindio 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.9% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +13.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions