Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Orsomarso vs Depor FC

Prediction Audit: Orsomarso vs Depor FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Orsomarso Orsomarso
Sep 14, 2026 - 22:45
0 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
Depor FC Depor FC

The model missed the final outcome (Depor FC win 0–2).

The model had projected Orsomarso at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Orsomarso Depor FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Orsomarso higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Orsomarso -15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Orsomarso 37.1% 52.7% -15.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Depor FC 33.3% 19.7% +13.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Orsomarso's win probability at 52.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Depor FC win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Orsomarso than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Orsomarso by 15.6 percentage points (52.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Orsomarso 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Depor FC 33.4%
    • xG · Orsomarso 1.34 — Depor FC 1.26
  2. Sep 14, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 1.76 · Draw 3.36 · Depor FC 4.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 52.7% · Draw 27.6% · Depor FC 19.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 14, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 1.76 · Draw 3.36 · Depor FC 4.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 52.7% · Draw 27.6% · Depor FC 19.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 14, 2026 · 22:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Depor FC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7574293

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Depor FC win · Orsomarso 0–2 Depor FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Orsomarso vs Depor FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 22:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Orsomarso 1.34 — Depor FC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions