Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Popayan vs Envigado

Prediction Audit: Popayan vs Envigado Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Popayan Popayan
Sep 06, 2026 - 20:30
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
Envigado Envigado

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Popayan at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Popayan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Popayan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Popayan +7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Popayan 35.2% 27.9% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.4% -1.7 pp Aligned
Envigado 35.2% 40.7% -5.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Popayan's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.9%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Popayan.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Popayan; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Popayan by 7.2 percentage points (28.0% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Popayan 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Envigado 35.2%
    • xG · Popayan 1.30 — Envigado 1.30
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Popayan 3.32 · Draw 2.96 · Envigado 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Popayan 27.9% · Draw 31.4% · Envigado 40.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Popayan 3.32 · Draw 2.96 · Envigado 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Popayan 27.9% · Draw 31.4% · Envigado 40.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6374622

Closing Odds 3.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Popayan 2–2 Envigado
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Popayan vs Envigado
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Popayan 1.3 — Envigado 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.3% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 30 9 7 14 34
11 Real Soacha 24 7 9 8 30
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 30 36 41 -5 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 24 30 28 +2 30
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions