Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Barranquilla vs Popayan

Prediction Audit: Barranquilla vs Popayan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barranquilla Barranquilla
Sep 01, 2026 - 22:30
2 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 74%
Popayan Popayan

The model missed the final outcome (Barranquilla win 2–1).

The model had projected Popayan at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Popayan Barranquilla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Barranquilla higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Barranquilla -15.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Barranquilla 32.9% 48.1% -15.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.7% +1.9 pp Aligned
Popayan 37.5% 24.2% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Barranquilla's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Barranquilla win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Barranquilla than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Popayan; match finished Barranquilla

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Popayan by 15.3 percentage points (52.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 01, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Barranquilla 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Popayan 37.6%
    • xG · Barranquilla 1.25 — Popayan 1.35
  2. Sep 01, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Barranquilla 1.93 · Draw 3.35 · Popayan 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Barranquilla 48.1% · Draw 27.7% · Popayan 24.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 01, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Barranquilla 1.93 · Draw 3.35 · Popayan 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Barranquilla 48.1% · Draw 27.7% · Popayan 24.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 01, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Barranquilla win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5506953

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barranquilla win · Barranquilla 2–1 Popayan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Barranquilla vs Popayan
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-01 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Barranquilla 1.25 — Popayan 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Popayan
  • Model: 37.6% · Implied: 24.2% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 30 9 7 14 34
11 Real Soacha 24 7 9 8 30
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 30 36 41 -5 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 24 30 28 +2 30
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions