Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Real Soacha vs Real Santander

Prediction Audit: Real Soacha vs Real Santander Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Soacha Real Soacha
Oct 09, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 64%
Real Santander Real Santander

The model missed the final outcome (Real Santander win 0–1).

The model had projected Real Soacha at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Soacha Real Santander ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Real Soacha; match finished Real Santander

Market lesson

The full-time result was Real Santander win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Real Soacha 1.51 — Real Santander 1.09
  2. Oct 09, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Real Santander win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3614632

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Santander win · Real Soacha 0–1 Real Santander
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Real Soacha vs Real Santander
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Real Soacha 1.51 — Real Santander 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Quindio 32 16 9 7 57
3 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
4 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
5 Union Magdalena 32 15 8 9 53
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Barranquilla 32 9 8 15 35
11 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
12 Popayan 26 7 10 9 31
13 Orsomarso 26 6 9 11 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Leones FC 26 4 8 14 20
16 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 32 45 31 +14 53
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 32 37 43 -6 35
6 Quindio 32 33 21 +12 57
7 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
8 Popayan 26 33 34 -1 31
9 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 26 20 28 -8 27
16 Leones FC 26 16 41 -25 20
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions