Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso

Prediction Audit: Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
Jul 31, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.53
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 49%
Orsomarso Orsomarso

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Union Magdalena at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Union Magdalena Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Union Magdalena higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Union Magdalena -12.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Union Magdalena 46.3% 59.1% -12.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 25.1% +3.6 pp Aligned
Orsomarso 25.0% 15.7% +9.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Union Magdalena's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Union Magdalena than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Union Magdalena; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union Magdalena by 12.8 percentage points (59.1% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Union Magdalena 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Orsomarso 24.9%
    • xG · Union Magdalena 1.53 — Orsomarso 1.07
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Union Magdalena 1.53 · Draw 3.60 · Orsomarso 5.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Magdalena 59.1% · Draw 25.1% · Orsomarso 15.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Union Magdalena 1.53 · Draw 3.60 · Orsomarso 5.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Magdalena 59.1% · Draw 25.1% · Orsomarso 15.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1680104

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Union Magdalena 0–0 Orsomarso
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): Union Magdalena 1.53 — Orsomarso 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions