Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Tigres FC vs Leones FC

Prediction Audit: Tigres FC vs Leones FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tigres FC Tigres FC
Jul 24, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Leones FC Leones FC

The model missed the final outcome (Leones FC win 0–1).

The model had projected Tigres FC at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tigres FC Leones FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Leones FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Leones FC +7.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tigres FC 43.4% 49.5% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.0% 31.6% -1.6 pp Aligned
Leones FC 26.6% 18.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Leones FC's win probability at 26.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Leones FC win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Leones FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tigres FC; match finished Leones FC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tigres FC by 7.7 percentage points (35.7% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tigres FC 43.5% · Draw 29.9% · Leones FC 26.6%
    • xG · Tigres FC 1.41 — Leones FC 1.19
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tigres FC 1.86 · Draw 2.92 · Leones FC 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Tigres FC 49.5% · Draw 31.6% · Leones FC 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tigres FC 1.86 · Draw 2.92 · Leones FC 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Tigres FC 49.5% · Draw 31.6% · Leones FC 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Leones FC win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450693

Closing Odds 4.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leones FC win · Tigres FC 0–1 Leones FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Categoría Primera B
  • Fixture: Tigres FC vs Leones FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.5% · Draw 29.9% · Away 26.6%
  • xG (showing): Tigres FC 1.41 — Leones FC 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions