Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Quindio vs Popayan

Prediction Audit: Quindio vs Popayan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Quindio Quindio
Jul 24, 2026 - 21:05
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Popayan Popayan

The model missed the final outcome (Popayan win 0–1).

The model had projected Quindio at 43.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Quindio Popayan ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Quindio higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Quindio -17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Quindio 43.7% 61.5% -17.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 24.6% +4.4 pp Aligned
Popayan 27.4% 13.9% +13.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Quindio's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.7%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Popayan win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Quindio than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Quindio; match finished Popayan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Quindio by 17.8 percentage points (61.5% vs model 43.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 21:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Quindio 43.7% · Draw 28.9% · Popayan 27.4%
    • xG · Quindio 1.32 — Popayan 1.28
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Quindio 1.51 · Draw 3.78 · Popayan 6.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Quindio 61.5% · Draw 24.6% · Popayan 13.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 21:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Quindio 1.51 · Draw 3.78 · Popayan 6.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Quindio 61.5% · Draw 24.6% · Popayan 13.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 21:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Popayan win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449721

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Popayan win · Quindio 0–1 Popayan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Categoría Primera B
  • Fixture: Quindio vs Popayan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 21:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.7% · Draw 28.9% · Away 27.4%
  • xG (showing): Quindio 1.32 — Popayan 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 31 14 9 8 51
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 30 11 8 11 41
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 24 9 7 8 34
10 Barranquilla 30 9 7 14 34
11 Real Soacha 24 7 9 8 30
12 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
13 Popayan 23 5 9 9 24
14 Depor FC 24 5 8 11 23
15 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
16 Real Santander 24 3 9 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 31 40 28 +12 51
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 30 36 41 -5 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 30 30 25 +5 41
8 Real Soacha 24 30 28 +2 30
9 Patriotas 24 29 29 0 34
10 Popayan 23 25 30 -5 24
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 24 24 35 -11 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 24 20 37 -17 18
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions