Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Orsomarso vs Barranquilla

Prediction Audit: Orsomarso vs Barranquilla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Orsomarso Orsomarso
Jul 26, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Barranquilla Barranquilla

AI correctly predicted the Orsomarso win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Orsomarso Orsomarso ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Orsomarso higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Orsomarso -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Orsomarso 38.4% 44.1% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 29.0% +0.5 pp Aligned
Barranquilla 32.1% 26.9% +5.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Orsomarso's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.4%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Orsomarso win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Orsomarso. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Orsomarso higher (44.1% vs model 38.4%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Orsomarso win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Orsomarso 38.4% · Draw 29.5% · Barranquilla 32.1%
    • xG · Orsomarso 1.32 — Barranquilla 1.28
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 2.10 · Draw 3.20 · Barranquilla 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 44.1% · Draw 29.0% · Barranquilla 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 2.10 · Draw 3.20 · Barranquilla 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 44.1% · Draw 29.0% · Barranquilla 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Orsomarso win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454833

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Orsomarso win · Orsomarso 1–0 Barranquilla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Categoría Primera B
  • Fixture: Orsomarso vs Barranquilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 29.5% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): Orsomarso 1.32 — Barranquilla 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions