Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Envigado vs Real Soacha

Prediction Audit: Envigado vs Real Soacha Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Envigado Envigado
Jul 27, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Real Soacha Real Soacha

The model missed the final outcome (Envigado win 1–0).

The model had projected Real Soacha at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Soacha Envigado ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Real Soacha considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Real Soacha +15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Envigado 31.0% 46.3% -15.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 29.8% -0.3 pp Aligned
Real Soacha 39.5% 23.9% +15.6 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Real Soacha's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Envigado win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Real Soacha.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Real Soacha; match finished Envigado

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Real Soacha by 15.6 percentage points (23.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Envigado 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Real Soacha 39.5%
    • xG · Envigado 1.21 — Real Soacha 1.39
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Envigado 1.95 · Draw 3.03 · Real Soacha 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Envigado 46.3% · Draw 29.8% · Real Soacha 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Envigado 1.95 · Draw 3.03 · Real Soacha 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Envigado 46.3% · Draw 29.8% · Real Soacha 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Envigado win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454991

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Envigado win · Envigado 1–0 Real Soacha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Envigado vs Real Soacha
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Envigado 1.21 — Real Soacha 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 30 9 7 14 34
11 Real Soacha 24 7 9 8 30
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 30 36 41 -5 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 24 30 28 +2 30
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions