Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Atletico Grau vs Cultural Santa Rosa

Prediction Audit: Atletico Grau vs Cultural Santa Rosa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
Oct 08, 2026 - 20:30
0 1.47
0 1.57
xG Accuracy: 43%
Cultural Santa Rosa Cultural Santa Rosa

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Cultural Santa Rosa at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cultural Santa Rosa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Atletico Grau higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Atletico Grau -23.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atletico Grau 34.3% 58.2% -23.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.0% 24.2% +2.7 pp Aligned
Cultural Santa Rosa 38.7% 17.5% +21.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Atletico Grau's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.3%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cultural Santa Rosa by 23.9 percentage points (62.6% vs model 38.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 08, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atletico Grau 34.3% · Draw 26.9% · Cultural Santa Rosa 38.7%
    • xG · Atletico Grau 1.47 — Cultural Santa Rosa 1.57
  2. Oct 08, 2026 · 20:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Grau 1.58 · Draw 3.80 · Cultural Santa Rosa 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Grau 58.2% · Draw 24.2% · Cultural Santa Rosa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  3. Oct 08, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Grau 1.58 · Draw 3.80 · Cultural Santa Rosa 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Grau 58.2% · Draw 24.2% · Cultural Santa Rosa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  4. Oct 08, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12431545

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atletico Grau 0–0 Cultural Santa Rosa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Atletico Grau vs Cultural Santa Rosa
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-08 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.3% · Draw 26.9% · Away 38.7%
  • xG (showing): Atletico Grau 1.47 — Cultural Santa Rosa 1.57 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 62.4% · Implied: 53.0% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +12.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.4% · No 37.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 12 6 9 42
7 Cienciano 27 12 5 10 41
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 Cienciano 27 46 40 +6 41
3 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 36 45 -9 42
13 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 — — — 42
8 Cienciano 27 — — — 41
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions