Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / UTC vs Sporting Cristal

Prediction Audit: UTC vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

UTC UTC
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.40
1 1.75
xG Accuracy: 55%
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal

AI correctly predicted the Sporting Cristal win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Sporting Cristal -2.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
UTC 28.4% 26.3% +2.1 pp Aligned
Draw 26.1% 25.2% +0.8 pp Aligned
Sporting Cristal 45.6% 48.5% -2.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sporting Cristal win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Sporting Cristal attacking xG significantly stronger (1.75 vs 1.40)
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Sporting Cristal win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 11, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · UTC 28.4% · Draw 26.0% · Sporting Cristal 45.6%
    • xG · UTC 1.40 — Sporting Cristal 1.75
  2. Oct 11, 2026 · 17:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
    • 1X2 odds · UTC 3.50 · Draw 3.65 · Sporting Cristal 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · UTC 26.3% · Draw 25.2% · Sporting Cristal 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  3. Oct 11, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · UTC 3.50 · Draw 3.65 · Sporting Cristal 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · UTC 26.3% · Draw 25.2% · Sporting Cristal 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  4. Oct 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sporting Cristal win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 85/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13233749

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cristal win · UTC 0–1 Sporting Cristal
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: UTC vs Sporting Cristal
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 26.0% · Away 45.6%
  • xG (showing): UTC 1.4 — Sporting Cristal 1.75 (total xG ≈ 3.15)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.0% · Implied: 55.3% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +3.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.6% · No 36.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 12 6 9 42
7 Cienciano 27 12 5 10 41
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 Cienciano 27 46 40 +6 41
3 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 36 45 -9 42
13 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 ADT 27 3.3 0.4 +2.9 25
2 Alianza Lima 27 2.9 0.3 +2.6 56
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 4.0 2.7 +1.3 48
4 Comerciantes Unidos 27 2.1 1.1 +1.0 30
5 FBC Melgar 27 1.7 1.4 +0.3 46
6 Sport Boys 27 1.8 1.7 +0.1 38
7 Alianza Atletico 27 1.7 1.8 -0.1 40
8 Sporting Cristal 27 0.6 0.8 -0.2 38
9 Universitario 27 1.4 1.7 -0.3 49
10 Sport Huancayo 27 1.3 1.6 -0.3 35
11 Juan Pablo II College 27 1.1 2.1 -1.0 34
12 Cusco 27 1.7 2.9 -1.2 45
13 UTC 27 0.8 2.9 -2.1 15
14 FC Cajamarca 27 0.4 3.3 -2.9 27
15 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 — — — 42
16 Cienciano 27 — — — 41
17 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions