Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau

Prediction Audit: Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
Sep 19, 2026 - 20:30
3 1.71
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau

AI correctly predicted the Sporting Cristal win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sporting Cristal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sporting Cristal -23.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sporting Cristal 45.0% 68.1% -23.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.5% 19.5% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Atletico Grau 28.5% 12.4% +16.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sporting Cristal's win probability at 68.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.0%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sporting Cristal win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.04) — 4 goals materialised
  • Sporting Cristal attacking xG significantly stronger (1.71 vs 1.33)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sporting Cristal higher (68.0% vs model 45.0%, 23.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sporting Cristal win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 45.0% · Draw 26.5% · Atletico Grau 28.5%
    • xG · Sporting Cristal 1.71 — Atletico Grau 1.33
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Cristal 1.36 · Draw 4.74 · Atletico Grau 7.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 68.1% · Draw 19.5% · Atletico Grau 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Cristal 1.36 · Draw 4.74 · Atletico Grau 7.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 68.1% · Draw 19.5% · Atletico Grau 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sporting Cristal win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8709841

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cristal win · Sporting Cristal 3–1 Atletico Grau
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 28.5%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Cristal 1.71 — Atletico Grau 1.33 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.4% · Over 2.5 58.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.7% · No 38.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.7% · No 38.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions