Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction Audit: Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sport Boys Sport Boys
Sep 13, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.47
0 1.57
xG Accuracy: 57%
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso

The model missed the final outcome (Sport Boys win 1–0).

The model had projected Deportivo Garcilaso at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo Garcilaso Sport Boys ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Deportivo Garcilaso +20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sport Boys 34.3% 54.2% -19.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.0% 27.1% -0.2 pp Aligned
Deportivo Garcilaso 38.7% 18.6% +20.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Deportivo Garcilaso's win probability at 38.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.6%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sport Boys win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo Garcilaso by 20.1 percentage points (18.6% vs model 38.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sport Boys 34.3% · Draw 26.9% · Deportivo Garcilaso 38.7%
    • xG · Sport Boys 1.47 — Deportivo Garcilaso 1.57
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Boys 1.71 · Draw 3.42 · Deportivo Garcilaso 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Boys 54.2% · Draw 27.1% · Deportivo Garcilaso 18.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Boys 1.71 · Draw 3.42 · Deportivo Garcilaso 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Boys 54.2% · Draw 27.1% · Deportivo Garcilaso 18.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sport Boys win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 07:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7490368

Closing Odds 4.98
AI Fair Odds 1.71
CLV Pending
Final Result Sport Boys win · Sport Boys 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 58.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.3% · Draw 26.9% · Away 38.7%
  • xG (showing): Sport Boys 1.47 — Deportivo Garcilaso 1.57 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.6% · Implied: 45.7% · Probability edge: +12.9 pts · Est. EV: +24.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.4% · No 37.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25