Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / FBC Melgar vs ADT

Prediction Audit: FBC Melgar vs ADT Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
Sep 06, 2026 - 23:30
3 1.61
0 1.43
xG Accuracy: 46%
ADT ADT

AI correctly predicted the FBC Melgar win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FBC Melgar higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FBC Melgar -25.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FBC Melgar 40.5% 66.3% -25.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.9% 22.6% +4.3 pp Aligned
ADT 32.6% 11.1% +21.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FBC Melgar's win probability at 66.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.5%, a difference of 25.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FBC Melgar win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.04) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FBC Melgar higher (66.3% vs model 40.5%, 25.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FBC Melgar win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FBC Melgar 40.5% · Draw 26.9% · ADT 32.7%
    • xG · FBC Melgar 1.61 — ADT 1.43
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FBC Melgar 1.40 · Draw 4.11 · ADT 8.35
    • Implied 1X2 · FBC Melgar 66.3% · Draw 22.6% · ADT 11.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FBC Melgar 1.40 · Draw 4.11 · ADT 8.35
    • Implied 1X2 · FBC Melgar 66.3% · Draw 22.6% · ADT 11.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FBC Melgar win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6375287

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FBC Melgar win · FBC Melgar 3–0 ADT
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: FBC Melgar vs ADT
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 26.9% · Away 32.7%
  • xG (showing): FBC Melgar 1.61 — ADT 1.43 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.4% · Over 2.5 58.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions