Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca

Prediction Audit: Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
Aug 28, 2026 - 20:30
2 1.51
3 1.53
xG Accuracy: 58%
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca

AI correctly predicted the FC Cajamarca win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FC Cajamarca considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FC Cajamarca +16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Comerciantes Unidos 36.1% 52.1% -16.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.0% 27.0% -0.1 pp Aligned
FC Cajamarca 36.9% 20.8% +16.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates FC Cajamarca's win probability at 36.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC Cajamarca win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FC Cajamarca.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.04) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Cajamarca more conservatively (20.8% vs model 36.9%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Cajamarca win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 36.1% · Draw 27.0% · FC Cajamarca 36.9%
    • xG · Comerciantes Unidos 1.51 — FC Cajamarca 1.53
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 1.78 · Draw 3.43 · FC Cajamarca 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 52.1% · Draw 27.0% · FC Cajamarca 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 1.78 · Draw 3.43 · FC Cajamarca 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 52.1% · Draw 27.0% · FC Cajamarca 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Cajamarca win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 04:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4949712

Closing Odds 4.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Cajamarca win · Comerciantes Unidos 2–3 FC Cajamarca
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 27.0% · Away 36.9%
  • xG (showing): Comerciantes Unidos 1.51 — FC Cajamarca 1.53 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.4% · Over 2.5 58.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.5% · No 37.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.5% · No 37.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25