Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College

Prediction Audit: Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
Aug 02, 2026 - 16:00
2 2.21
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 67%
Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College

AI correctly predicted the Sporting Cristal win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sporting Cristal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sporting Cristal -15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sporting Cristal 58.0% 73.6% -15.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.3% 16.7% +5.6 pp Model Higher
Juan Pablo II College 19.7% 9.7% +10.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Sporting Cristal's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 58.0%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sporting Cristal win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sporting Cristal than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Sporting Cristal attacking xG significantly stronger (2.21 vs 1.25)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sporting Cristal higher (73.6% vs model 58.0%, 15.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sporting Cristal win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 58.1% · Draw 22.2% · Juan Pablo II College 19.7%
    • xG · Sporting Cristal 2.21 — Juan Pablo II College 1.25
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Cristal 1.26 · Draw 5.55 · Juan Pablo II College 9.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 73.6% · Draw 16.7% · Juan Pablo II College 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Cristal 1.26 · Draw 5.55 · Juan Pablo II College 9.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cristal 73.6% · Draw 16.7% · Juan Pablo II College 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sporting Cristal win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Betting Confidence 39/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1951727

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cristal win · Sporting Cristal 2–0 Juan Pablo II College
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 58.1% · Draw 22.2% · Away 19.7%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Cristal 2.21 — Juan Pablo II College 1.25 (total xG ≈ 3.46)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.8% · Over 2.5 67.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.6% · No 35.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.6% · No 35.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions