Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction Audit: ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ADT ADT
Aug 02, 2026 - 18:15
0 2.19
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 53%
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso

The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo Garcilaso win 0–1).

The model had projected ADT at 61.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ADT Deportivo Garcilaso ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates ADT considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: ADT +15.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ADT 61.0% 45.9% +15.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.1% 26.7% -4.6 pp Aligned
Deportivo Garcilaso 16.9% 27.4% -10.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates ADT's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 45.9%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Deportivo Garcilaso win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ADT.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ADT by 15.1 percentage points (45.9% vs model 61.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ADT 61.0% · Draw 22.1% · Deportivo Garcilaso 16.9%
    • xG · ADT 2.19 — Deportivo Garcilaso 1.10
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 2.02 · Draw 3.47 · Deportivo Garcilaso 3.38
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 45.9% · Draw 26.7% · Deportivo Garcilaso 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 2.02 · Draw 3.47 · Deportivo Garcilaso 3.38
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 45.9% · Draw 26.7% · Deportivo Garcilaso 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Deportivo Garcilaso win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (62%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 39/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1955107

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportivo Garcilaso win · ADT 0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 61.0% · Draw 22.1% · Away 16.9%
  • xG (showing): ADT 2.19 — Deportivo Garcilaso 1.1 (total xG ≈ 3.29)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 36.1% · Over 2.5 63.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.4% · No 39.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.4% · No 39.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions