Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima

Prediction Audit: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
Jul 26, 2026 - 20:30
2 2.00
2 1.87
xG Accuracy: 96%
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Comerciantes Unidos at 41.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Comerciantes Unidos Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Comerciantes Unidos considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Comerciantes Unidos +15.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Comerciantes Unidos 41.0% 25.8% +15.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 23.1% 31.7% -8.6 pp Market Higher
Alianza Lima 35.9% 42.6% -6.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Comerciantes Unidos's win probability at 41.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Comerciantes Unidos.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.87) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Comerciantes Unidos; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Comerciantes Unidos by 15.2 percentage points (25.8% vs model 41.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 41.0% · Draw 23.0% · Alianza Lima 36.0%
    • xG · Comerciantes Unidos 2.00 — Alianza Lima 1.87
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 3.60 · Draw 2.93 · Alianza Lima 2.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 25.8% · Draw 31.7% · Alianza Lima 42.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 3.60 · Draw 2.93 · Alianza Lima 2.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 25.8% · Draw 31.7% · Alianza Lima 42.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454772

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds 2.41
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Comerciantes Unidos 2–2 Alianza Lima
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Peruvian Primera División
  • Fixture: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 23.0% · Away 36.0%
  • xG (showing): Comerciantes Unidos 2.0 — Alianza Lima 1.87 (total xG ≈ 3.87)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Comerciantes Unidos
  • Model: 41.0% · Implied: 25.8% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 74.2% · No 25.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (7.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera División Matches Track Comerciantes Unidos Next Match Prediction Track Alianza Lima Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Comerciantes Unidos & Alianza Lima!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions