Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Alianza Atletico vs Cultural Santa Rosa

Prediction Audit: Alianza Atletico vs Cultural Santa Rosa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
Jul 24, 2026 - 20:00
3 2.17
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 78%
Cultural Santa Rosa Cultural Santa Rosa

AI correctly predicted the Alianza Atletico win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Alianza Atletico +2.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alianza Atletico 60.8% 58.4% +2.4 pp Aligned
Draw 22.3% 24.1% -1.8 pp Aligned
Cultural Santa Rosa 16.9% 17.5% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Alianza Atletico win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.26) — 4 goals materialised
  • Alianza Atletico attacking xG significantly stronger (2.17 vs 1.09)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Alianza Atletico win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alianza Atletico 60.7% · Draw 22.3% · Cultural Santa Rosa 16.9%
    • xG · Alianza Atletico 2.17 — Cultural Santa Rosa 1.09
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Atletico 1.59 · Draw 3.85 · Cultural Santa Rosa 5.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Atletico 58.4% · Draw 24.1% · Cultural Santa Rosa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Atletico 1.59 · Draw 3.85 · Cultural Santa Rosa 5.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Atletico 58.4% · Draw 24.1% · Cultural Santa Rosa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alianza Atletico win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 72/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 75/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449440

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alianza Atletico win · Alianza Atletico 3–1 Cultural Santa Rosa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Peruvian Primera División
  • Fixture: Alianza Atletico vs Cultural Santa Rosa
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 60.7% · Draw 22.3% · Away 17.0%
  • xG (showing): Alianza Atletico 2.17 — Cultural Santa Rosa 1.09 (total xG ≈ 3.26)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 36.8% · Over 2.5 63.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.0% · No 40.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.0% · No 40.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera División Matches Track Alianza Atletico Next Match Prediction Track Cultural Santa Rosa Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Alianza Atletico & Cultural Santa Rosa!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25