Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Cultural Santa Rosa vs Sport Boys

Prediction Audit: Cultural Santa Rosa vs Sport Boys Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cultural Santa Rosa Cultural Santa Rosa
Jul 19, 2026 - 16:00
1 2.45
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 47%
Sport Boys Sport Boys

AI correctly predicted the Cultural Santa Rosa win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cultural Santa Rosa Cultural Santa Rosa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Cultural Santa Rosa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Cultural Santa Rosa +14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cultural Santa Rosa 61.3% 46.8% +14.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 20.4% 28.2% -7.8 pp Market Higher
Sport Boys 18.3% 25.1% -6.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Cultural Santa Rosa's win probability at 61.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 46.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cultural Santa Rosa win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cultural Santa Rosa.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Cultural Santa Rosa attacking xG significantly stronger (2.45 vs 1.32)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cultural Santa Rosa more conservatively (46.8% vs model 61.3%, 14.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cultural Santa Rosa win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cultural Santa Rosa 61.3% · Draw 20.4% · Sport Boys 18.3%
    • xG · Cultural Santa Rosa 2.45 — Sport Boys 1.32
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cultural Santa Rosa 1.97 · Draw 3.27 · Sport Boys 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Cultural Santa Rosa 46.8% · Draw 28.2% · Sport Boys 25.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cultural Santa Rosa 1.97 · Draw 3.27 · Sport Boys 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Cultural Santa Rosa 46.8% · Draw 28.2% · Sport Boys 25.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cultural Santa Rosa win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (81%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1482795

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds 1.63
CLV Pending
Final Result Cultural Santa Rosa win · Cultural Santa Rosa 1–0 Sport Boys
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 61.3%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Peruvian Primera División
  • Fixture: Cultural Santa Rosa vs Sport Boys
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Cultural Santa Rosa 2.45 — Sport Boys 1.32 (total xG ≈ 3.77)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25